CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 28 percentage points from 61 percent (2007) to 89 percent (2019), then flattened in recent years¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2023: local conditions change quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The Freshman OnTrack rate increased from 61 percent for the 2007 cohort to 89 percent for the 2019 cohort, and has held steady since 2015. → Nagaoka 2020 q2 i? In 2019, Latino young men (83 percent) and Black young men (84 percent) had Freshman OnTrack rates below the district average of 89 percent, while Asian/Pacific Islander young women reached 98 percent. → Nagaoka 2020 (2)

Evidence¶

Nagaoka 2020¶

Nagaoka, J., Mahaffie, S., Usher, A., & Seeskin, A. (2020). The Educational Attainment of Chicago Public Schools Students: 2019. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://toandthrough.uchicago.edu/tool/cps/2019/#/milestones

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Figure 6 takeaway from this descriptive report tracking Freshman OnTrack rates for first-time ninth-graders from 2007 to 2019. The report notes an increase of 28 percentage points compared to the 2007 cohort's 61 percent rate.

"Of the 2019 first-time CPS ninth-graders, 89 percent were on-track to graduate, a rate that has held steady since 2015. The Freshman OnTrack rate for CPS is higher than the rate for the state of Illinois, which is 87 percent."

Nagaoka 2020 (2)¶

Nagaoka, J., Mahaffie, S., Usher, A., & Seeskin, A. (2020). The Educational Attainment of Chicago Public Schools Students: 2019. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://toandthrough.uchicago.edu/tool/cps/2019/#/milestones

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Table 2 takeaway disaggregating 2007 and 2019 Freshman OnTrack rates by race/ethnicity and gender. Latino young men and Black young women each increased 27 percentage points between 2007 and 2019.

"In 2007, fewer than half of Black young men were on-track; they had the largest increase in their Freshman OnTrack rate, 36 percentage points, going from 48 percent to 84 percent."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose from 58 to 89 percent between 2007 and 2017 while graduation rates rose 19 percentage points — related
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 25 percentage points, from 64 percent in 2003 to 89 percent in 2017 — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 24 percentage points, from 64 percent for the Class of 2006 to 88 percent for the Class of 2019 — related
• The four-year CPS high school graduation rate rose from 62.3 percent for the 2008 cohort to an all-time high of 83.2 percent for the 2020 cohort — related
• Chicago's district-wide Freshman On-Track rate improved from 61 percent in 2006 to 85 percent in 2015 — related
• Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores — related
• Citywide freshman on-track rates improved from 48 to 58 percent over a decade, with declines tied to increased course-taking — related
• Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants — related
• CPS's four-year high school graduation rate reached a record 85.0% in 2023, up about one percentage point from 84.1% in 2022 — related