Citywide freshman on-track rates improved from 48 to 58 percent over a decade, with declines tied to increased course-taking¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q3
Currency · newest study 2005 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Freshman on-track rates in CPS improved from 48 percent in 1994–95 to 58 percent in 2003–04, with dips in 1997–98 and 2003–04 largely attributable to students receiving more F's because they attempted more credits. → Allensworth 2005

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2005¶

Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005). The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/track-indicator-predictor-high-school-graduation

q3 · i? · associational · r3

Ten-year trend analysis of CPS freshman cohorts, reported with Figures 6–9. Average course-taking rose from 5.64 to 7.0 courses and pass rates from 76 to 81 percent; the report links course-taking increases to specific CPS policy changes such as double-period math requirements.

"Freshman on-track rates in CPS improved from 1994–95 to 2003–04, from 48 percent to 58 percent, counting freshman-year dropouts as off-track as CPS does"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 24 percentage points, from 64 percent for the Class of 2006 to 88 percent for the Class of 2019 — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose from 58 to 89 percent between 2007 and 2017 while graduation rates rose 19 percentage points — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 25 percentage points, from 64 percent in 2003 to 89 percent in 2017 — related
• CPS graduation rates increased by 22.4 percentage points over 16 years, from 52.4 percent among students who turned 19 in 1998 to 74.8 percent in 2014 — related
• Freshman OnTrack improvements were largest in the lowest-performing schools, with bottom-quartile schools gaining 33 percentage points — related
• Districtwide ninth-grade on-track rates rose 25 percentage points between 2007 and 2013 across racial, gender, and achievement subgroups — related
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — related
• Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants — related
• Long-term English Learners without IEPs had the lowest Freshman OnTrack rate and substantially lower graduation rates than district average — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 28 percentage points from 61 percent (2007) to 89 percent (2019), then flattened in recent years — related