CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose from 58 to 89 percent between 2007 and 2017 while graduation rates rose 19 percentage points¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · causal r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? From 2007 to 2017, the Freshman OnTrack rate in CPS increased from 58 to 89 percent. → Roderick 2021 q2 i? From 2011 to 2017, the CPS five-year graduation rate increased by 19 percentage points. → Roderick 2021

Evidence¶

Roderick 2021¶

Roderick, M., & Kelley-Kemple, T., with Johnson, D. W., & Ryan, S. (2021). The Preventable Failure: Improvements in High School Graduation Rates when High Schools Focus on the Ninth-Grade Year. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-preventable-failure

q2 · i? · causal · r1

Districtwide trend analysis of publicly reported CPS rates shows the on-track rate "increased from 58 to 89 percent" over the decade after the indicator became a reform focus. No effect size is printed.

"From 2007 to 2017, the Freshman OnTrack rate in CPS increased from 58 to 89 percent."

Roderick 2021 (2)¶

Roderick, M., & Kelley-Kemple, T., with Johnson, D. W., & Ryan, S. (2021). The Preventable Failure: Improvements in High School Graduation Rates when High Schools Focus on the Ninth-Grade Year. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-preventable-failure

q2 · i? · causal · r1

The report's introduction describes district graduation trends: "from 2011 to 2017, the CPS’s five-year graduation rate increased by 19 percentage points," with 2017 the seventh consecutive year of improvement. Descriptive trend, no effect size.

"Altogether, from 2011 to 2017, the CPS’s five-year graduation rate increased by 19 percentage points."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 25 percentage points, from 64 percent in 2003 to 89 percent in 2017 — related
• Seventy-six percent of CPS students graduated from high school in 2018, up from 57 percent in 2006 — related
• CPS four-year high school graduation rose from 57 percent in 2006 to 75 percent in 2017, with options-school graduates adding 4 more percentage points — related
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — related
• Eighth-grade graduates fared better in the transition to high school over time, but Freshman OnTrack rates were not consistently higher than at similar schools — related
• Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Freshman OnTrack improvements were largest in the lowest-performing schools, with bottom-quartile schools gaining 33 percentage points — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 24 percentage points, from 64 percent for the Class of 2006 to 88 percent for the Class of 2019 — related
• CPS graduation rates increased by 22.4 percentage points over 16 years, from 52.4 percent among students who turned 19 in 1998 to 74.8 percent in 2014 — related
• Districtwide ninth-grade on-track rates rose 25 percentage points between 2007 and 2013 across racial, gender, and achievement subgroups — related
• Freshman on-track students are over three times as likely to graduate in four years as off-track students in CPS — related
• Citywide freshman on-track rates improved from 48 to 58 percent over a decade, with declines tied to increased course-taking — related
• Talladega County Schools' graduation rate rose from just above 70 percent in 2008 to 93 percent after its transition to project-based learning supported by digital technologies — related
• The share of students in the On-Track category increased by 20 percentage points between 2009 and 2019 while the Intensive Support share decreased from 12 to 8 percent — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 28 percentage points from 61 percent (2007) to 89 percent (2019), then flattened in recent years — related
• CPS four-year high school graduation rose from 58 percent (2007) to 82 percent (2019), with 18-point growth excluding options school graduates — related
• Chicago's district-wide Freshman On-Track rate improved from 61 percent in 2006 to 85 percent in 2015 — related
• Freshman OnTrack rates improved by as much as 3.25 percentage points more in high schools with strong 5Essentials Survey measures — related
• Schools vary widely in freshman on-track rates even among students with similar backgrounds — related
• CPS high school graduation rates rose from 57 percent to 74 percent between 2006 and 2016 — related
• CPS's four-year high school graduation rate reached a record 85.0% in 2023, up about one percentage point from 84.1% in 2022 — related
• Chicago graduation rates improved 17 percentage points (57 to 74 percent) between 2006 and 2015 while the ACT average rose from 17.6 to 18.5 — related