Students off track after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate, with Black and Latino students 46% and 31% more likely than the national average to be off track in 2022¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 2 studies · 2 design r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 2026 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 2 of 2 entries) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Students off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate as their on-track peers (an association the report cites, not a demonstrated cause), and Black and Latino students were 46% and 31% more likely than the national average to be off track in 2022. → Liberman 2025

q2 i? Students who are off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers. → ontrack-1

q2 i? In 2022, Black and Latino students were 46% and 31% more likely than the national average to be off track to graduate on time. → ontrack-2

Evidence¶

Liberman 2025¶

Liberman, B., Bradbury, J., Vollavanh, A. & Karim, S. (Eds.). (2025). Innovating for Student Success: District-Led Innovation Showcase. Digital Promise. https://doi.org/10.51388/20.500.12265/255

q2 · i? · design · r1

The report cites graduation data to motivate student success systems, stating off-track ninth graders are "less than half as likely to graduate" and printing the 46% and 31% disparity figures for 2022. The underlying studies are not described; percentages are not standardized effect sizes.

"Students who are off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers, with this issue having a disproportionate impact on Black and Latino students who were 46% and 31% more likely than the national average to be off track to graduate on time in 2022."

ontrack-1¶

Cocuzza, B., Noakes, S., Aso, C., Vollavanh, A., Goldschmidt, L., and Bennett, K. (2026, August). From Data Silos to Student Success: The CICS and Innovare Co-Design Approach to AI-Driven Intervention. Digital Promise. https://doi.org/10.51388/20.500.12265/304

q2 · i? · design · r1

Background graduation data cited in Appendix A of the report to underscore the urgency of Freshman On-Track work; the report attributes it to research without printing a primary source or effect size.

"Students who are off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers, with this issue having a disproportionate impact on Black and Latino students"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Students off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Gains in sophomore performance were unequal: about one in five Latino and Black young men were off-track at the end of sophomore year — related
• Ninth-grade on-track ELL students in Chicago were up to 3.5 times more likely to graduate than off-track students — related
• The freshman on-track indicator predicts five-year graduation equally or more strongly for students with learning disabilities, mild cognitive disabilities or emotional disturbances than for students without disabilities, with on-track students two to six times more likely to graduate — related
• Ninth-graders who were On-Track were three and one-half times more likely to graduate in four years than off-track students — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• Black and Latinx students were less likely than their peers to be in the On-Track category, and within each race/ethnicity group boys were less likely to be on-track than girls — related
• Students on track in ninth grade were four times more likely than off-track peers to graduate high school — related