Students off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · design r2 · q1
Currency · newest study 2026 · checked against its sources 2026-10-17 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q1 i? Students who are off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers, with disproportionate impact on Black and Latino students. → Cocuzza 2026

Evidence¶

Cocuzza 2026¶

Cocuzza, B., Noakes, S., Aso, C., Goldschmidt, L., and Bennett, K. (2026). Designing student success systems intentionally: How Warwick Public Schools and Panorama bridge the gap with co-designed technical solutions. Digital Promise. https://doi.org/10.51388/20.500.12265/303

q1 · i? · design · r2

Background statistic reported in Appendix A of the case study, cited as research the article draws on to underscore the urgency of student success systems; the article attributes it to research without presenting the underlying analysis. No effect size is printed.

"Students who are off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers, with this issue having a disproportionate impact on Black and Latino students who were 46% and 31% more likely than the national average to be off track to graduate on time in 2022."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Students off track after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate, with Black and Latino students 46% and 31% more likely than the national average to be off track in 2022 — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Freshman on-track students are over three times as likely to graduate in four years as off-track students in CPS — related
• Ninth-grade on-track ELL students in Chicago were up to 3.5 times more likely to graduate than off-track students — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• Students on track in ninth grade were four times more likely than off-track peers to graduate high school — related
• Gains in sophomore performance were unequal: about one in five Latino and Black young men were off-track at the end of sophomore year — related
• The freshman on-track indicator predicts five-year graduation equally or more strongly for students with learning disabilities, mild cognitive disabilities or emotional disturbances than for students without disabilities, with on-track students two to six times more likely to graduate — related
• Black and Latinx students were less likely than their peers to be in the On-Track category, and within each race/ethnicity group boys were less likely to be on-track than girls — related