The freshman on-track indicator predicts five-year graduation equally or more strongly for students with learning disabilities, mild cognitive disabilities or emotional disturbances than for students without disabilities, with on-track students two to six times more likely to graduate¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2009 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 2 of 2 entries) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2012: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? On-track students with emotional disturbances are almost six times more likely to graduate in five years than off-track students with emotional disturbances, despite a lower overall graduation rate. → Julia Gwynne 2009 q2 i? Similar on-track graduation patterns hold for students with learning disabilities, students with mild cognitive disabilities, and students two or more years below grade level. → Julia Gwynne 2009 (2)

Evidence¶

Julia Gwynne 2009¶

Julia Gwynne, Joy Lesnick, Holly M. Hart, Elaine M. Allensworth. (2009). What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public Schools: A Focus on Students with Disabilities. Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago Urban Education Institute. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/what-matters-staying-track-and-graduating-chicago-public-schools-focus-students

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Chapter 3 analysis of the 2001 CPS freshman cohort relating freshman on-track status to five-year graduation. Figure 11 prints on-track versus off-track graduation rates for each of five categories (no identified disability, two or more years below grade level, learning disability, mild cognitive disability, emotional disturbance), e.g. 87% versus 31% for students without disabilities. Students with speech/language or physical/sensory disabilities are not in this analysis, so the finding covers those three disability categories, not students with disabilities as a whole.

"although only 57 percent of on-track students with emotional disturbances graduate in five years (compared with 87 percent of students without disabilities), on-track students with emotional disturbances are almost six times more likely to graduate than off-track students with emotional disturbances."

Julia Gwynne 2009 (2)¶

Julia Gwynne, Joy Lesnick, Holly M. Hart, Elaine M. Allensworth. (2009). What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public Schools: A Focus on Students with Disabilities. Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago Urban Education Institute. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/what-matters-staying-track-and-graduating-chicago-public-schools-focus-students

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Chapter 3 reports the on-track indicator is "equally or more predictive of graduation for students with disabilities" than in prior CCSR research, with Figure 11 showing on-track students across all groups two to six times more likely to graduate.

"Similar patterns exist for students with learning disabilities, students with mild cognitive disabilities, and students who enter high school two or more years below grade level, as shown in Figure 11."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Learning Disabilities and Developmental Differences — moderator: an instructional effect differs with it

Related Claims¶

• Students with disabilities attained postsecondary readiness and success outcomes at about one half to one third the rate of students without disabilities, the largest difference between any student group and its counterpart — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
• Freshman-year performance of Chicago ninth-graders falls into three tiers, with students two or more years below grade level and students with emotional disturbances performing worst across GPA, course failures, absences, and on-track status — related
• At each level of freshman course performance, students with disabilities and students two or more years below grade level are less likely to graduate than their non-disabled peers — related
• Within every student category, freshman GPA, course failures, and absences are strongly related to five-year graduation rates, with large drops per half grade point, per additional course failure, and per absence band — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — a broader claim this one bears on
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — a broader claim this one bears on
• Freshman on-track students are over three times as likely to graduate in four years as off-track students in CPS — related
• The on-track indicator is strongly related to students' likelihood of graduating — a broader claim this one bears on
• Students off track after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate, with Black and Latino students 46% and 31% more likely than the national average to be off track in 2022 — related
• In 2019–20, 71 percent of students with disabilities graduated high school within four years versus 87 percent of all students — related
• Students off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers — related
• Students on track in ninth grade were four times more likely than off-track peers to graduate high school — related