Schools vary widely in freshman on-track rates even among students with similar backgrounds¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q3
Currency · newest study 2005 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2010: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Schools' freshman on-track rates vary from just over 30 percent to just over 90 percent, and for students with typical CPS backgrounds the rate differs by almost 20 percentage points among the middle three-fourths of schools. → Allensworth 2005

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2005¶

Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005). The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/track-indicator-predictor-high-school-graduation

q3 · i? · associational · r3

Observational comparison of CPS high schools, reported with Figure 1 including adjusted rates that remove differences explainable by entering student characteristics. The report concludes students' likelihood of being on-track depends quite a bit on which school they attend.

"The on-track rate for students with background characteristics that are typical for CPS (e. g. average achievement and average economic status) differs by almost 20 percentage points (from 56 to 75 percent) among the middle three-fourths of schools, and by 40 percentage points if all schools are compared."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants — related
• Vivaldi students' first-year on-track rates differed across destination high schools for the 1997 cohort — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Vivaldi students' first-year on-track rates differed across destination high schools for the 2001 cohort — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose from 58 to 89 percent between 2007 and 2017 while graduation rates rose 19 percentage points — related
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — related
• Chicago's district-wide Freshman On-Track rate improved from 61 percent in 2006 to 85 percent in 2015 — related
• Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• Systemwide CPS first-year on-track percentages ranged from 44.8 to 50.8 across the 1997–2001 cohorts — related