The on-track indicator is strongly related to students' likelihood of graduating¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 2003 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2006: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? First-year on-track status is strongly related to a student's likelihood of graduating, which is why the report uses it as its central achievement measure. → Miller 2003

Evidence¶

Miller 2003¶

Miller, Shazia Rafiullah; Luppescu, Stuart; Correa, Macarena. (2003). How Well Do Vivaldi Students Succeed After Elementary School? (Unit 8888). Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/how-well-do-vivaldi-students-succeed-after-elementary-school

q2 · i? · associational · r1

Observational tracking report from the Consortium on Chicago School Research introducing its central achievement measure. The report states the on-track indicator "is strongly related to students' likelihood of graduating." No effect size is printed.

"The on-track indicator is important because it is strongly related to students' likelihood of graduating."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• The freshman on-track indicator predicts five-year graduation equally or more strongly for students with learning disabilities, mild cognitive disabilities or emotional disturbances than for students without disabilities, with on-track students two to six times more likely to graduate — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• Within every student category, freshman GPA, course failures, and absences are strongly related to five-year graduation rates, with large drops per half grade point, per additional course failure, and per absence band — related
• Students show signs of dropout risk early in high school, and schools that reach out in the ninth-grade year can keep them on track to graduate — related
• Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores — related
• The report treats freshman on-track status as an early indicator correlated with later graduation and dropout — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Understanding how a student develops social-emotionally over intermediate school can improve identification of students not on track to succeed in high school — related