Cohort-based graduation and dropout rate calculation

Research Method · All research methods
Evidence · 5 claims (4 for, 1 mixed) · 2 studies (2 associational), q2 · 0 of 2 report an effect size · 5 claims rest on one study

Description

The report calculates graduation and dropout rates by following student cohorts over multiple years using two cohort types. Freshman cohorts track first-time ninth graders and permit school comparisons; age-13 cohorts are followed until age 19, a method the report states "is not affected by changes in grade progression, and thus provides a consistent comparison over time." The methods are described as very similar to those recently recommended by the National Center on Education Statistics, with term definitions based on No Child Left Behind Act requirements and CPS characteristics.

Accounts

• Cohort-based calculation of graduation and dropout rates following age-13 cohorts to age 19 and freshman cohorts four years: The report calculates graduation and dropout rates by following student cohorts over multiple years using two cohort types. Freshman cohorts track first-time ninth graders and permit school comparisons; age-13 cohorts are followed until age 19, a method the report states "is not affected by changes in grade progression, and thus provides a consistent comparison over time." The methods are described as very similar to those recently recommended by the National Center on Education Statistics, with term definitions based on No Child Left Behind Act requirements and CPS characteristics. (Allensworth (2005))
• Consortium cohort dropout rate calculation procedure for CPS (age-13 cohorts, six-year follow-up, Master Files): A documented statistical procedure for computing comparable cohort dropout rates from administrative records. It defines cohorts as students aged 13 by September 1, follows them six years to age 19, uses student Master Files rather than drop files, updates classifications yearly, and classifies specific leave codes as dropouts. The report states it follows "cohorts for six years, calculating the percentage of students that dropped out at each age from 13 to 19." (Elaine Allensworth et al. (2001))

Claims

• About 54 percent of Chicago Public Schools students graduated from CPS by age 19 for the 1998 age-13 cohort and by the fourth year for the 1999 freshman cohort [+W]
• Over 40 percent of Chicago Public Schools students drop out by age 19, with a slight downward trend across the 1991–1994 cohorts [+W]
• The five-year dropout rate for the first cohort fully subject to the CPS promotion policy (1995) continued the slight downward trend, but pre-age-18 patterns do not clearly indicate a change [+W]
• Defining dropout cohorts by age 13 rather than by ninth-grade entry avoids composition bias from the CPS promotion policy's grade retentions [+W]
• Including unverified transfers as dropouts yields dropout rates about 4 percent higher at age 19 and eliminates the downward trend [~W]

Related Research Methods

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Key Sources

• Allensworth, E. (2005). Graduation and Dropout Trends in Chicago: A look at cohorts of students from 1991 through 2004, Report Highlights. Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/graduation-and-dropout-trends-chicago-look-cohorts-students-1991-2004
• Elaine Allensworth and John Q. Easton. (2001). Calculating a Cohort Dropout Rate for the Chicago Public Schools: A Technical Research Report. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/calculating-cohort-dropout-rate-chicago-public-schools

Page metadata

Field	Value
type	research-method
id	cohort-based-graduation-and-dropout-rate-calculation
aliases	consortium-cohort-dropout-rate-calculation-procedure-for-cps
title	Cohort-based graduation and dropout rate calculation
description	The report calculates graduation and dropout rates by following student cohorts over multiple years using two cohort types.
status	review
moved_from	element/cohort-tracking-graduation-rate-method
generated	by process:sweep-kinds on 2026-10-10
trust	unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content
sources	2 — allensworth-2005, elaine-allensworth-and-john-q-easton-2001

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